It’s an old truism that markets slow down between May and October, and May is the time to sell.

And on the face of it, statistics would seem to agree. Since 1950 the Dow Jones Industrial Index has had an average gain of 7.5% between November and April and only a 0.3% gain over the May to October period.

The problem with these statistics is that they are only averages. The second period, May to October, does incorporate some unusually horrible Octobers (1987, 1989, 1997, 2002 & 2007).

So the big question for investors right now, is should we be following suit and selling out of the markets in anticipation of the May to October slowdown? Only time will tell however, there will be a confluence of events in this period that we’ll need to consider.

First up, in a local Australian context, there’s an upcoming election, and elections always disrupt the market as investors adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude as regard the outcome. The Australian election is tipped to be close, and it’s likely that market conditions will soften while Australians wait to see whether there will be a change in government.

Thinking about global trends and impact drivers, the US and Spain are facing elections, and the UK will vote on BREXIT – the decision on whether Britain leaves the European Union. Further tensions over refugees will likely heat up again over the European summer months.

It’s also reporting season both here in Australia and in the US, and central banks and the IMF show further signs of downgrading their growth outlooks. Both the ECB and Japan seem to be at the end of their conventional easing programs, and the US is likely to lift interest rates again in the near term.

And this is all against a background of general global market volatility that has dogged the first two quarters of 2016.

While this sounds rather bearish, there are also some bright spots. The US Federal Reserve is no longer advising that foreign markets are a risk to the US economy; they at least believe that some of the market volatility has stabilised a bit.

Furthermore, the US economy is doing comparatively well, and China seems to have lifted again. Europe appears to be gaining some traction on the growth side and unemployment is starting to drop, albeit very slowly.

All in all it seems most likely that over May to October, we’ll muddle our way through these more stringent economic times. But it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

In any case, we would certainly not be selling out of the equity market on masse.

The problem with looking back over the last 66 years is that we are dealing with averages, and contrary to the narrative, there have also been periods where the market has rallied strongly between May and October.

Short term periods of volatility will always exist. But in the grand scheme of things they are mere blips on the long term market ride. History has taught us that over the long term, markets tend to climb.

As always, it’s important not to get caught up in the short term noise and miss out on the long term gains.

过去有这么一种现象：每年5月至10月市场就会低迷，而5月就是最好的抛售时机。

从表面上看，数据也印证了这一点。自1950年以来，道琼斯工业指数在11月至4月间平均增长7.5%，而5月至10月仅增长0.3%。

关键在于，这些数据只是平均数。后一个时期，即5月至10月，还包含了一些异常恐怖的10月(1987年、1989年、1997年、2002年和2007年)。

所以，目前投资者面临着的最大问题，在于我们是否要因循旧例，在5月至10月预期市场可能低迷的情况下抛售一空，远离市场？这只能留待时间来证明，但我们也需要考虑这段时间多个事件的共同作用。

首先，澳大利亚国内即将举行大选，而大选通常会对市场造成干扰，因为投资者常常会抱着“作壁上观”的态度来等候大选结果出台。澳大利亚大选已日益临近，在澳大利亚民众静待政府是否会发生更替之际，市场状况很可能会走向疲软。

我们再来看全球市场和影响因素，美国和西班牙即将迎来大选，而英国则准备针对退欧(BREXIT)进行投票表决：决定英国是否退出欧盟。难民事件的进一步紧张局势，可能会让欧洲夏季再度沸腾。

而现在也是澳大利亚和美国的年报季节，两国央行和国际货币基金组织也进一步展示出降低增长前景的迹象。欧洲央行和日本的常规宽松计划似乎已走到尽头，美国则可能会在近期再次提升利率。

除此之外，2016年的前两个季度，全球市场行情波动不断。

这听起来非常符合熊市特征，但也不乏亮点。美联储不再宣称海外市场对美国经济构成威胁；他们至少认为市场波动局势在某些方面已略趋稳定。

此外，美国经济表现也相对不错，中国经济似乎也已再次提振。欧洲似乎在增长侧方面也获得了一些拉升，失业率下降虽然缓慢，但已经开始。

总而言之，最有可能的现象是，5月至10月期间，我们将在这些更严峻的经济时期里摸索前行。但这注定是一段崎岖的路程。

任何情况下，我们绝对不要争相抛售，撤离股市。

回顾过去66年，问题在于我们一直纠结于平均数据；而与这一论断相反的是，在5月至10月期间，市场也曾有过强势反弹。

短期波动总会存在。从整个大局来看，这只不过是长线市场中的暂时现象。历史告诉我们，长期来看，市场处于攀升趋势。

和往常一样，重要的是我们不受短期噪音干扰，不要错过长期收益。

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